Nice piece, Rick! It reminded me of the folks (largely overlapping with the wealth inequality crowd, I think) who predict AI will deliver sustained double-digit annual economic growth rates. In my experience, these people tend to overlook the role of labor market frictions in holding back such high growth rates.
It seems to me that things like geographic mobility or occupational switching would need to be much more common in "the new world order" than they have been in the past if we are going to achieve such high economic growth rates.
As with everything, we don't know with certainty what the future will bring, but if the past is any indication, the future is not going to unfold in the way the hype men and "AGI 2027" crowd envision.
I agree that sustained double-digit growth is not likely, for the reasons you listed and many more. But I am very optimistic that AI will increase human productivity. And I think sustained mid-single-digit growth among developed countries and high single digit growth in developing countries would be world changing.
Nice piece, Rick! It reminded me of the folks (largely overlapping with the wealth inequality crowd, I think) who predict AI will deliver sustained double-digit annual economic growth rates. In my experience, these people tend to overlook the role of labor market frictions in holding back such high growth rates.
It seems to me that things like geographic mobility or occupational switching would need to be much more common in "the new world order" than they have been in the past if we are going to achieve such high economic growth rates.
As with everything, we don't know with certainty what the future will bring, but if the past is any indication, the future is not going to unfold in the way the hype men and "AGI 2027" crowd envision.
I agree that sustained double-digit growth is not likely, for the reasons you listed and many more. But I am very optimistic that AI will increase human productivity. And I think sustained mid-single-digit growth among developed countries and high single digit growth in developing countries would be world changing.